Duncan v. Bonta on the Brink of Breaking Supreme Court History: 19 Relists and Counting — Why This Is Surprisingly Good News for Gun Owners

As of June 1, 2026, Duncan v. Bonta (No. 25-198) — the leading challenge to California’s ban on large-capacity magazines — has now been distributed for Supreme Court conference a remarkable 19 times.

That puts the case just a few steps away from shattering the modern record for the most relists on a cert petition. And for once, setting a record at the Supreme Court may actually be excellent news for Second Amendment advocates.

What Is Duncan v. Bonta?

The case asks two straightforward questions:

1. Whether California’s ban on magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds violates the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.
2. Whether the state’s confiscation of lawfully acquired magazines without compensation violates the Fifth Amendment’s Takings Clause.

After the Ninth Circuit upheld the ban en banc in March 2025, petitioners — represented by top-tier counsel including Erin Murphy and backed by the California Rifle & Pistol Association — filed for certiorari. The petition gained even more momentum in March 2026 when the D.C. Circuit created a clear, irreconcilable circuit split by striking down D.C.’s nearly identical ban in Benson v. United States.

The Record That’s About to Fall

The current all-time high for relists stands at 22, set years ago in a capital habeas case (Ryan v. Hurles). Most cert petitions die quietly after just 1–3 distributions. Cases that reach double digits are already rare. At 19 distributions and climbing, Duncan is in truly historic territory — especially for a non-capital, non-habeas Second Amendment case.

If the justices relist it again at the upcoming June 4 conference (or simply hold it over the summer recess), Duncan will officially break the record by late June or early fall.

Why So Many Relists Is Often a Very Good Sign

It’s easy to feel frustrated watching the case get pushed from conference to conference. But veteran Supreme Court watchers — including those at SCOTUSblog’s Relist Watch — consistently view very high relist counts as a positive signal, not a death knell.

High relists usually mean:

• At least one (and likely more) justice is actively fighting for a grant and working to line up the four votes needed.
• The Court is carefully debating the best vehicle among the cluster of pending Second Amendment cases (magazines, assault-weapon bans, etc.).
• The justices are taking extra time to get the framing and timing exactly right on a high-stakes issue.

In short: the justices aren’t ignoring Duncan. They are wrestling with it — and that level of sustained attention historically correlates strongly with an eventual grant (or, at minimum, a strong published dissent from denial). Quick denials are the real silent killers. A long, deliberate review is how important cases get taken seriously.

What Happens Next?

The case is scheduled for the June 4, 2026 conference, with possible additional distributions for June 11, 18, and 25 before the term ends. Any case not acted upon will be automatically carried over to the “Long Conference” on September 28, 2026.

Possible outcomes in the coming weeks:

• Grant of certiorari (full briefing and arguments in the 2026–2027 term).
• GVR (grant-vacate-remand) in light of recent developments.
• Hold for another term.

Even a denial accompanied by a published dissent would send a powerful message and aid future litigation.

The Bottom Line

For California gun owners who have lived under the magazine ban for years, the wait has been long and frustrating. But the extraordinary number of relists suggests the Supreme Court is giving Duncan v. Bonta exactly the serious, careful consideration a strong constitutional case deserves.

This isn’t a case being parked and forgotten — it’s a case being actively debated at the highest level. And that may be the best possible sign yet that clarity on common ammunition magazines as protected “arms” is finally on the horizon.

You can track the live docket here: https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/25-198.html

We’ll update as soon as the next order list drops (expected the week of June 8). Stay tuned — history could be made in the next few weeks.